One of my coaching clients asked a question that I’m sure is on the minds of many other alpaca enthusiasts … and that is all about the stability of alpaca market values.
So here is my personal opinion:
You see, because the most important source of revenue in the alpaca industry is the actual sale of livestock (particularly breeding females), and also because the 2nd most important revenue source (stud fees) are dependent upon the market price of alpaca livestock … the primary risk you take when you enter the alpaca industry is ‘market risk’.
(Of course there ARE other risks besides market risk, … but the availability of very affordable alpaca livestock insurance eliminates many of these concerns.)
If you’re willing to embrace the alpaca lifestyle and work at it for five to ten years, most people should be able to grow their herds to a size which would be worth five hundred thousand dollars (and often more). That’s because at today’s market prices, 35 – 40 registered alpacas are worth that much.
So, as far as I can tell, the only truly significant risk we take when we decide to get into alpacas, is whether 35 to 40 alpacas will still be worth a half million dollars when we’re ready to get out.
The good news is that the average alpaca costs between 10,000 – $20,000 now – the same price it cost during the introduction of the species in the U.S. 25 years ago. Although this market value is subject to fluctuation like any other market, the value has stayed nearly the same because demand has been keeping pace nicely with supply. (The US herd is still pretty small.)
One of the reasons the Alpaca herd stays small is because the registry of imports is formally closed (here in the USA, we’re not allowed to bring in any more from outside the country) and because females can only have one “cria” (the term for an alpaca baby) each year (the gestation period is 11.5 months!)
Breeders in the business for a decade or more will usually say they’ve seen the low-end prices for alpacas drop and the prices for the top animals increase. This is also an indication of the stability of the value in the market overall. (And a good reason to embrace the lifestyle fully if you’re going to do this, so that you really can learn how to develop high end animals.)
One of the first females we bought had a 4 month old female cria at side. I named her Coconut Crunch, CC for short. (See her 11 month picture above.) That was in August of 2004. Well, just this week, June 7, 2009, CC delivered her third baby girl! In addition to that, her first cria, Sedona, is pregnant and due in the fall. From that initial purchase of CC and her dam, our herd has grown by 6 (all females) with several more years of production ahead. We’re not ready to sell CC or her offspring yet … even though we’ve had offers from people to buy her.
These are some of my thoughts … what are yours?