At the end of February, a very important event took place… The Snowmass Auction in Phoenix AZ. Most of us breeders use this event as a barometer about the price of alpacas for the year ahead. Based on the results of this event, the future looks bright, solid and prices are coming back up.

Two years ago, February 2008, the auction sales price for quality alpacas was the lowest in our industries history. There wasn’t even a Snowmass auction in 2009. However, 2010 is a very different story.

One of the reasons… in their own words: “Double “O” Good Alpacas is thrilled to announce that we are the proud new owners of Snowmass Matrix! We purchased Matrix at the Snowmass Making of Champions-Genetic Advancement Sale on February 27, 2010 for a record-setting price of $675,000, the highest selling alpaca at an auction!”

As I listened in to the live auction over the computer, I noticed that several farms bid quite high for this amazing stud. As the bids went over the half a million dollar mark, the energy got franetic! Gasps were heard and the auctioneer could hardly keep up with the increase of the bids. The serious bidding farms just kept the prices going up and up. Finally it was all over and it seemed unbelievable to realize that the final bid was $675,000!… however, Double “O” Good Alpacas feels that his worth is “PRICELESS!”

The future looks bright not only for prepotent MATRIX, but for our whole alpaca industry.

Next time I’ll comment on the high prices paid for some of the alpaca females sold at the auction.

Do you have an opinion on the results of the Snowmass Auction of 2010?

Julie

PHOTO:
Holding the newly acquired MATRIX, are the proud new owners, Ernie and Barbara Kellogg from VA standing next to the sellers, Julie & Don Skinner of Snowmass Alpacas.

In this photo, you can see that all are eating together peacefully... for a short time.

As I write this we are experiencing the 4^th consistent day of rain and preparing for SNOW. This fact alone may not be newsworthy; however, we live in southern California! What I’m observing with my alpaca females applies whether you live in moderate or extreme climatic regions. It applies whether you raise your alpacas on pasture or in a dry lot environment. At times you may have to change their eating conditions, make other arrangements and possibly crowd them in for a short time. Now the question is: how do you know if they are too crowded?

The simple answer… I listen! That’s right; I observe and listen from a distance to figure that out. What I’ve observed boils down to … if they’re crowded they’ll do a lot of quibbling, a lot of spitting and posturing over who’s going to get to the feeder first and stake their claim. 

I count on enough space so that every single alpaca can be at the feeders all at once, without feeling crowded.  Best advise – just keep adding feeders, creating multiple feeding stations until you achieve that. And when the rains came and they all wanted to be inside at once… that’s what we chose to do. Normally these 12 wander among 3-4 other feeding stations… and they come and go at their will.

If you find yourself questioning the crowding issue in small spaces, then just spread out the feeders so that every alpaca could eat all they want simultaneously. You might consider creating special feeding areas for the cria – if they get squeezed out from the adults. Alpacas are extremely adaptable and that is why they make a great livestock business. You can start out small and expand as your needs arise. Your alpacas will let you know if they have outgrown the feeding arrangements!

So here is my personal opinion:

You see, because the most important source of revenue in the alpaca industry is the actual sale of livestock (particularly breeding females), and also because the 2nd most important revenue source (stud fees) are dependent upon the market price of alpaca livestock … the primary risk you take when you enter the alpaca industry is ‘market risk’. 

(Of course there ARE other risks besides market risk, … but the availability of very affordable alpaca livestock insurance eliminates many of these concerns.)

If you’re willing to embrace the alpaca lifestyle and work at it for five to ten years, most people should be able to grow their herds to a size which would be worth five hundred thousand dollars (and often more).  That’s because at today’s market prices, 35 – 40 registered alpacas are worth that much. 

So, as far as I can tell, the only truly significant risk we take when we decide to get into alpacas, is whether 35 to 40 alpacas will still be worth a half million dollars when we’re ready to get out. 

The good news is that the average alpaca costs between 10,000 – $20,000 now – the same price it cost during the introduction of the species in the U.S. 25 years ago. Although this market value is subject to fluctuation like any other market, the value has stayed nearly the same because demand has been keeping pace nicely with supply.  (The US herd is still pretty small.)

One of the reasons the Alpaca herd stays small is because the registry of imports is formally closed (here in the USA, we’re not allowed to bring in any more from outside the country) and because females can only have one “cria” (the term for an alpaca baby) each year (the gestation period is 11.5 months!) 

Breeders in the business for a decade or more will usually say they’ve seen the low-end prices for alpacas drop and the prices for the top animals increase. This is also an indication of the stability of the value in the market overall. (And a good reason to embrace the lifestyle fully if you’re going to do this, so that you really can learn how to develop high end animals.)

One of the first females we bought had a 4 month old female cria at side. I named her Coconut Crunch, CC for short. (See her 11 month picture above.) That was in August of 2004. Well, just this week, June 7, 2009, CC delivered her third baby girl! In addition to that, her first cria, Sedona, is pregnant and due in the fall. From that initial purchase of CC and her dam, our herd has grown by 6 (all females) with several more years of production ahead. We’re not ready to sell CC or her offspring yet … even though we’ve had offers from people to buy her.

These are some of my thoughts … what are yours?

But I really don’t think they’re much alike at all, and here’s why:

First, with Emus, the profit center was supposed to be the meat market (which never really materialized in the U.S.)

With Alpacas, there is NO meat industry, and no one is relying upon it to produce revenue in their business model. 

That’s a good thing for two reasons.

First and foremost … if you have to slaughter an animal to derive value from it, you have an inherent limitation in your
model.

Second, you’re going to get kind of emotionally attached to these animals … (they’re very sweet) … so it would be heartbreaking to sell them for slaughter.

Emus also produced valuable oil, but not really enough to make a real profit.

But the biggest difference between the alpaca and emu industry is that one female emu could have DOZENS of offspring every year, which grew the USA herd size too quickly to allow for stable market values.  There was no way that demand could keep up with supply.

(The rapid reproductive rate of emus also made it difficult for farmers to keep up with expenses and needed equipment – and people were confused about how large an omelet you’d get from one Emu egg.)

Alpacas have only one baby a year, so herds grow slowly unless you buy more alpacas. (That’s also why it takes a few years to start earning significant income, and that this is an industry suitable for those willing to put in five to ten years.)

Another reason that alpacas appear to be a much hardier investment than emus is that the fleece usually earns enough money to feed the herd, and is expected to become more marketable over time.  So there is inherent stability for the alpaca farmer.

Last, because the value of an alpaca is directly related to the quality of it’s bloodline, alpaca farms often have a need to purchase animals from each other, or at minimum to buy breeding services. This creates the need/possibility to improve the genetics of the offspring and generate another revenue stream..

Long story short, although there is, of course, market risk in any investment, most of the experts I speak to, feel the alpaca market would remain stable for the foreseeable future, as it has for the past 20+ years.  (This is not a certainty though … only a probability.)

I worked with a professional researcher who tested this theory. He asked an MBA in finance who also happened to be a successful alpaca rancher what he personally would do if he inherited a hundred thousand dollars tomorrow.  He was anticipating that he would hear that he would be putting half in some type of safe and reliable instrument like treasury notes, some in stocks, and perhaps 25 – 30% into his alpaca business.

But this rancher pleasantly surprised the researcher by emphatically stating (without hesitation, I might add) that the 100% would go into alpacas. That validated exactly how I feel about my investment.

Please give me your thoughts on this subject by completing the comments section below.

1. It’s not like winning the lottery. However, more like growing your investment exponentially and in the long term profit appears very likely, if you’re willing and able to fully embrace the lifestyle for 5 to 10 years. 

 2. Although there are five main “revenue streams” in the Alpaca industry (livestock sale, stud fees, boarding fees fiber sales, and product sales) … by far the majority of the income will come from sale of livestock. 

3. Because the income comes largely from livestock sale, you’ll need to reach a critical mass in your herd (about 20 -30 Alpacas) before you can generate a substantial income.

Prior to reaching this level, it’s usually not a good idea to sell too many offspring because it interferes with your ‘production capacity’.

(Generating income requires that you sell your females … and if you sell too many before your herd is large enough, you won’t be able to increase in size as fast by breeding)

4. There are a number of significant tax benefits and write offs, which vary from state to state. You’ll need to consult with a certified accountant to advise you in particular, however, the government usually provides incentives to make it easier to get started, as long as you treat your Alpacas as a BUSINESS. (See the Post: Let Uncle Sam Buy Your Alpacas For You)

5. Although there are a variety of ways to reach critical mass, how much you invest in a quantity of livestock to start with, and how avidly you engage in the lifestyle are the two most important factors.

Theoretically, it’s possible to buy your way to critical mass right off the bat … however, this might also overwhelm the inexperienced Alpaca investor.

6. You don’t necessarily have to have the land or the money in the bank to get started.  Options for boarding (“agisting”) and financing your initial Alpacas are available from most breeders.  (More on this in a future post.)

7. You can (and probably should) insure your Alpaca investment at an approximate cost of 3% of the value of your herd, per year. (At the time of this writing.)

8. Generating a 6 figure income each year is realistic if you’re willing to grow your herd to 35 to 40 Alpacas.  Some farms do a lot more than this, and 7 figures is not impossible. (Even in a down economy.)

9. Losing your initial investment is probably less common in the alpaca industry because proven females should multiply their values by producing 7 or more offspring over the course of their lifetime.

10. If you’re only in it for the money … you might be better off doing something else.  But if you love and passionately embrace the lifestyle, the money should follow.

This is just a quick summary on the “Bottom Line” return on alpaca investing. What are your thoughts? Please comment below.